New Zealand’s Political Future In Limbo As National Party Awaits Coalition Decision.

By Caroline Ameh

New Zealand is bracing for a period of political uncertainty as the newly elected National party mulls over its coalition options. Saturday’s election results saw the National party secure 50 seats, and its traditional partner Act, 11 seats, bringing them to the cusp of the 61 seats required to form a government.

However, the outcome remains uncertain due to two key factors. First, the distribution of votes, which have tended to favor the left, could erode the National-Act majority, potentially forcing them to negotiate with the populist party New Zealand First led by Winston Peters. Peters, known for his maverick politics, could exert significant influence over the government’s direction.

Secondly, the performance of Te Pāti Māori, a party focused on Maori representation, could further complicate the situation. Their success in winning more electorate seats than their party vote projected may increase the size of the parliament, thereby requiring National-Act to secure additional seats for a governing majority.

Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of the National party has indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with NZ First before the special votes are counted, but the specifics of these negotiations remain undisclosed.

In the face of these uncertainties, the National party faces a dilemma: it must decide whether to stick with a potentially fragile majority or partner with a party likely to present challenges.

According to Prof. Andrew Geddis, an electoral law expert, governing with a one-seat majority would be extremely challenging. Therefore, the National party may need to accommodate Winston Peters and his party’s demands, as has been the case in past elections where Peters played the role of kingmaker.

Peters has been critical of certain National and Act policies, deeming them unaffordable and inflationary. These policies include National’s proposal to allow some foreign buyers back into the housing market, tax cuts, and cuts to public services. Peters also opposes raising the superannuation age and pricing agricultural emissions, both of which are on the National party’s agenda. The negotiations in the coming weeks will determine the path New Zealand’s government takes.