Kenya: Can Martha Karua Unite Opposition Against Ruto?-Opinion.

By  Victor Abuso

Opponents seeking a coalition against President William Ruto in the 2027 polls have appointed the veteran politician to steer the effort, though analysts question her ability to unite the fractured opposition.

At least six key opposition leaders in Kenya, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and head of the Wiper Party Kalonzo Musyoka, are gearing up to form a united front, aimed at creating a new political coalition against President William Ruto.

In the build-up to the 2027 polls, the political leaders have tasked veteran politician Martha Karua, the head of the newly launched People’s Liberation Party, to be their convener, with a mandate of uniting all opposition leaders under one umbrella to take on Ruto.

On Tuesday the politicians – including Senator Richard Onyonka, Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa and popular businessman Jimi Wanjigi – held their first private talks in Nairobi.

After the meeting, Gachagua said on X that they have “started the journey of forming a strong political alliance to free Kenyans” from Ruto’s government.

Wamalwa, for his part, said the idea of a united opposition is to “stand united in the liberation of our country from the most corrupt and transactional regime Kenya has ever had”.

Meanwhile, Ruto has described the opposition leaders as a group of noisemakers. “Those are political conmen. They lack agenda, plans and vision. All they know is to mention my name,” Ruto said at a rally in the coastal county of Taita Taveta.

“Martha Karua assumed her role as our convener as she brought us together to continue the work of liberating this country from the shackles of bad governance and corruption,” Gachagua said.

Removing Ruto before 2027

Karua, opposition leader Raila Odinga’s running mate during the 2022 polls, said part of the strategy for a united opposition is to pick a single presidential candidate to face off with Ruto, whom she termed as a failure.

“For the liberation of our country, we need unity of purpose. We call upon party leaders to show commitment,” said Karua. “To remove Ruto, it does not have to be 2027 for him to go, it can be sooner.”

Political analyst Paul Musingi tells The Africa Report that despite Karua having a strong political personality and widely known to be principled, as a leader who stands for the rule of law, she lacks the required political skills and influence to unite the opposition.

“Karua has no history of forming alliances. She likes to walk alone for her own political interest using her political outfit,” Musingi says. According to him, Karua’s new political party has no reasonable following across the country or in the Mount Kenya region. He argues that it is this reason that denies her the political influence needed to engage more political leaders from the opposition.

The analyst posits that Gachagua would have been the best convener as he enjoys more support from the vote-rich region, but he lacks the national appeal to successfully unite the opposition. Moreover, Gachagua was impeached in October last year after the Senate found him guilty of  five out of 11 charges, of which he said were politically motivated. (Kenya’s constitution states that a person who has been dismissed or otherwise removed from office is disqualified from holding any other state office).

Unity test ahead

Veteran political analyst Herman Manyora of the University of Nairobi says for the opposition alliance to succeed, leaders also have to unite voters.

“A strong opposition needs the backing of the people. Unity of leaders is not enough. They need to connect with the people,” he tells The Africa Report. Karua, he adds, has a huge task of convincing the ordinary Kenyans that her team will offer alternative leadership, considering that the group has older politicians who have served in previous governments.

Manyora says the unity of the future coalition will be a huge test on who to settle on as their presidential candidate. “The current unity is temporary. Agreement on a single presidential candidate is what will prove Karua leadership and negotiation skills.”

Manyora describes Ruto as a political genius who has mastered the art of convincing ordinary Kenyans in rural areas who are the majority of voters to support him during campaigns, therefore cannot be ruled out.

Victor Abuso is a journalist based in Nairobi, a political commentator on East African politics, and contributes to The Africa Report