New Asymmetric Warfare: Looming Dangers and Defensive Strategy for Nigeria.
By Prof. Femi Olufunmilade
The subject matter of this article is so urgent and important that I deemed it not appropriate for a restricted Nigerian Army Journal. Rather, I have chosen to make it an open sesame for soldiers, statesmen, and citizens alike to read and ponder over. Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads in its security architecture, and the time for collective reflection and decisive action is now.
Since 2010, when the Boko Haram terrorist siege on Nigeria began, our nation has known no peace. Instead, we have endured multi-dimensional insecurity—largely within the mould of asymmetric warfare. Traditionally, asymmetric warfare describes a conflict in which a weaker party confronts a stronger adversary not through direct conventional confrontation, but by exploiting unconventional tactics, terrain, surprise, and psychological operations to offset the opponent’s superior resources. Classic examples abound: the United States’ humiliating defeat and retreat from Vietnam, where Viet Cong guerrillas used hit-and-run ambushes, tunnel networks, and improvised explosive devices against a superpower’s conventional might; or the prolonged quagmire in Afghanistan, where Taliban fighters leveraged IEDs, snipers, and local knowledge to bleed a far better-equipped NATO force for two decades.
In the context of this article, however, I am not referring to Asymmetric Warfare in the traditional sense. I speak of the New Asymmetric Warfare—a paradigm shift powered by missiles and drones that deliver devastating precision strikes on target without the need for troop deployment on the ground. This is warfare conducted from hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away, where the attacker remains invisible and unexposed. It is why I have termed it “New Asymmetric Warfare.” This development is fundamentally changing the nature of war itself and portends grave danger for Nigeria’s security and survival as a united country.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict offers a stark illustration. Ukraine, facing a numerically and materially superior Russian force, has weaponised low-cost drones to devastating effect—striking airbases deep inside Russia through covert operations like “Spider’s Web,” smuggling modular launch systems and explosive payloads to destroy strategic bombers worth billions. Sea drones and long-range kamikaze UAVs have similarly crippled Russian naval assets in the Black Sea, proving that a determined smaller actor can impose asymmetric costs without ever crossing borders with infantry.
Equally instructive is the ongoing spat between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran has repeatedly unleashed swarms of ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones against Israeli population centres and U.S. bases in the Gulf, while Israel and the U.S. have responded with precision standoff strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile factories, and command nodes—again, without large-scale ground invasions. These exchanges underscore a new reality: modern wars can be fought and won (or lost) primarily through aerial and missile platforms, rendering traditional troop concentrations vulnerable and obsolete.
This evolution poses an existential threat to Nigeria. If sundry centrifugal forces—ranging from Boko Haram and ISWAP in the northeast to IPOB/ESN in the southeast—acquire the resources and shift their focus to the New Asymmetric Warfare, Nigeria is unlikely to survive the onslaught intact. Imagine a nightmare scenario: small surveillance drones quietly mapping the exact locations of Nigerian military barracks, forward operating bases, and theatres of operation across the country. Hours or days later, armed drones or missiles carrying explosive payloads strike those same targets from hundreds of miles away, obliterating command structures, aircraft, ammunition depots, and troop concentrations with surgical precision.
This is not wild imagination; it is an emerging operational reality. Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Zulum, has already raised the alarm. In October 2025, he publicly warned the Federal Government that Boko Haram insurgents are now deploying armed drones to attack soldiers and conduct surveillance, describing the development as a “national security threat” that demands urgent acquisition of counter-drone systems (Vanguard, 25 October 2025; The Nation, 25 October 2025). Even more alarming, in February 2026 Nigerian troops arrested a suspected Boko Haram drone supplier and collaborators in the North-East, recovering two aerial drones, accessories, and solar power banks—concrete evidence that the terrorists are actively building drone capabilities (Premium Times, 20 February 2026).
The comparison with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is sobering. A country widely regarded as less technologically advanced than our Nigeria, whose tech-savvy youth and resource-rich environment have enabled rapid drone adoption, the DRC has seen drones dominate its eastern conflicts. In March 2026 alone, drone strikes hit Goma, killing civilians including a French U.N. aid worker (Reuters, 11 March 2026). Both FARDC forces and M23 rebels have employed Chinese CH-4 combat drones, Turkish TB2 systems, and kamikaze UAVs, with record numbers of attacks recorded in February 2026.
If the DRC can weaponise drones so effectively, Nigeria’s far more sophisticated youth population and industrial base leave us with no excuse for complacency. To nip this looming danger in the bud, Nigeria must act with urgency and vision. We should immediately ramp up our available military and civilian talents. Yes, civilians are already making drones. Start-ups such as Terra Industries (Abuja), founded by young Nigerians Nathan Nwachuku and Maxwell Maduka, have raised tens of millions of dollars, signed contracts with government agencies and the military, and are producing surveillance and counter-terrorism drones while protecting billions in national assets. Similarly, Enugu-based Arone Technologies and the military’s collaboration with Briech UAS— which unveiled Africa’s largest indigenous attack drones and bombs in April 2025 – demonstrate that homegrown capacity already exists (Premium Times, 3 April 2025). These efforts must be scaled exponentially through innovation hubs at universities, public-private partnerships, and targeted funding.
A detailed defensive and offensive strategy is imperative. First, Nigeria must urgently acquire proven Ukrainian technological support in both offensive and defensive drone systems. Ukraine’s battle-hardened expertise—battle-tested FPV drones, anti-drone jammers, electronic warfare suites, and AI-driven targeting—offers immediate, cost-effective solutions that have already humbled a nuclear superpower. Several Middle Eastern countries entangled in the Iran conflict have already benefited from similar technology transfers; the United States itself is rapidly copying the Ukrainian drone technology. When the dust eventually settles on the current Iran engagements, Nigeria should also explore discreet technological cooperation with Iran for its advanced drone and missile know-how—always guided by our national interest and non-proliferation obligations.
Ultimately, however, self-reliance is non-negotiable. Nigeria must develop its own autochthonous Military Industrial Complex dedicated to the New Asymmetric Warfare. This means establishing dedicated research and production centres for indigenous drones (surveillance, kamikaze, and combat variants), precision-guided munitions, anti-drone systems (jammers, directed-energy weapons, kinetic interceptors), satellite-linked command-and-control networks, and AI-enabled swarm technology. We can leverage existing platforms such as the Tsaigumi UAV, expand the Briech UAS partnership, and integrate civilian start-ups like Terra Industries into a national drone consortium. Funding should come from a dedicated security innovation levy, international grants tied to counter-terrorism, and diaspora investment. Collaboration with our universities—including Igbinedion University Okada—will ensure intellectual property remains Nigerian. The Buratai Center for Contemporary Security Affairs, of which I’m the Pioneer/Present Director, is a collaboration between Igbinedion University and the Nigerian Army. The military should leverage on its expertise in this life and death matter.
The New Asymmetric Warfare is not a distant threat; it is already at our doorstep. Boko Haram’s drone experiments, documented arrests, and the DRC’s precedent prove that delay is fatal. By mobilising our military prowess, civilian ingenuity, and strategic international partnerships while building indigenous capacity, Nigeria can transform this looming danger into a platform for regional dominance and national resilience. The survival of our united country demands nothing less. Soldiers, statesmen, and citizens—let us rise to the challenge together. Long live Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Prof. Femi Olufunmilade is the Director, Buratai Center for Contemporary Security Affairs, Igbinedion University Okada, Edo State, Nigeria.
Email: director.bccsa@iuokada.edu.ng
