What Are Raila Odinga’s Chances of Clinching the Top AU Job?

By Tesi Kaven

Kenya’s veteran politician Raila Odinga, who this week officially launched his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship, now has the uphill task of convincing the majority of the African Union Members to vote for him.

Odinga will need a two-thirds majority vote to become the fifth Commission Chair, succeeding the incumbent Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, in the February 2025 AUC elections.

The electorate is composed of heads of state of active members of the continental bloc.

As the Kenyan candidate navigates the high-stakes race, he has the advantage of the support of all the East African Community Heads of State, as well as leaders from other countries such as Algeria, Angola, South Africa, and Nigeria among others.

“More to the endorsements from Heads of State, Raila’s wealth of experience will work to his advantage,” Vianney Shumbusho, who formerly worked as the Chief of Staff in the office of the Deputy Chairperson of the AU Commission, told the New Times

Shumbusho said that Odinga’s track record of transformative leadership during his tenure as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development, gives him an edge over his competitors.

By design, the next top executive of the AU must come from the East African region, which has not produced one ever since the bloc was reformed in 2002, which is why all the candidates in the race are from this sub-region.

Other candidates are; Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, former Mauritius Foreign Minister Anil Kumarsingh Gayan and former Foreign Minister for Madagascar, Richard James Randriamandrato,

While Odinga’s experience and colourful résumé are important, voting patterns from past AUC elections have shown that leaders mostly rally behind candidates from their various regional blocs.

According to Con Omore, a governance and political economy consultant from Kenya, Odinga has a fifty-fifty chance at clinching the seat.

“There are a lot of factors to consider before securing the vote from presidents, including regional factors. Africa has Anglophone and Francophone regions, this will definitely come into play,” Omore told the New Times.

He added that Kenya’s relationship with African states may also be a factor to consider, with leaders potentially voting based on their relationship with Kenya.

Odinga is also banking on his agenda to set him apart from rival candidates vying for the AUC seat.

His agenda includes eight key priorities including; economic transformation, enhancing intra-African trade, Africa’s financial independence, championing gender equality, climate action, peace and security, agriculture transformation and continental integration.

For Shumbusho, prioritising peace and security as well as economic stability is key for the continent.

“There are a number of regions in Africa plagued by political instability and poverty. Based on his experience, I think Odinga has what it takes to tackle these issues which are well articulated in his agenda,” he said.

Apart from fronting Odinga as their candidate, Kenya is seemingly ‘putting her money where her mouth is’ and funding his campaign.

“The Kenyan government is underwriting Odinga’s campaign and not just putting in financial resources, but also skilled personnel and technical resources from the Ministry of Foreign affairs,” Omore said.

President William Ruto, on 27 August, announced that Odinga’s Campaign Secretariat will be led by Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Singóei and former Kenyan Ambassador to the United States, Elkanah Odembo.

It is not the first time that Kenya has fronted a candidate for the AUC top seat. In 2016, Kenya nominated the then Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed to contest for the chairperson of the AUC.

She however lost to the current chairperson, Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat.

Are there any lessons learnt from that experience?

“At the time, Amina Mohamed’s candidature was undermined by Kenya’s sour relationship with other African states. Between now and February 2025, Kenya must find a way to ensure that it maintains good relations with other African countries and especially those that are likely to tilt the vote,” Omore said.

Rwanda has also backed Odinga’s candidacy. During the launch of his bid earlier this week in Nairobi, James Kabarebe, Rwanda’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs in charge of Regional Cooperation said he was the ideal candidate, adding that his name resonates not only within Kenya but across the African continent.

It remains to be seen how or if external factors such as positions of the US, France, Russia, China and blocs like EU and BRICS, and the fallout from the war in Ukraine are likely to impact the outcome of the race for the top job at the AU Commission.

Tesi Kaven writes for The New Times.