Trump vs Harris: Who Is Leading in The US Presidential Election Polls?
With less than three weeks to go, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are battling it out to sway undecided voters.
However, the popular vote does not decide the winner. Instead, it determines which electors will represent each state in the Electoral College, which does pick the president.
To win, a candidate needs to secure 270 of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs. Electoral College votes are distributed across states according to their relative populations.
In late July, incumbent US President Joe Biden dropped his 2024 bid after weeks of pressure following a disastrous debate performance and increasing questions over his health.
Instead, Biden backed his vice president, setting the stage for a Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris matchup.
So who is in the lead, and who is predicted to win?
According to the latest national polling averages and historical polling data for Biden and Trump gathered by Euronews, the race just keeps getting tighter.
Since October, Trump has been surging in all of America’s swing states.
Among the seven most critical swing states, Harris and Trump are polling within one point of each other in five, per FiveThirtyEight polling models. Only Georgia and Arizona fall outside of the one-percent margin, with Trump building leads of closer to 2% — both states that swung for Joe Biden in 2020.
National polls are also showing a tightening in the race, with more polls consistently falling within the traditional 3% margin of error in recent weeks.
Still, Harris holds a consistent advantage nationally, including in polling conducted by America’s most accurate pollster in recent elections, TIPP. TIPP’s latest poll, released on Wednesday, shows Harris gaining a point on Trump for a four-point lead nationally. TIPP is only one of two major pollsters that accurately predict the outcomes of the elections in both 2016 and 2020.
Looking back at previous elections, Democrats have reason to be nervous about how close the race currently stands.
In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton, the Democrat held a lead between 5-7% over the Republican at this point in mid-October.
In 2020, when Biden narrowly defeated Trump, the current President held a roughly 9-point lead over Trump at this stage in the election.
For those who follow the betting markets in search of predictions, Trump’s success in America’s swing states is starting to shift the odds in his favour.
According to RealClearPolitics Odds Averages, Trump has amassed his largest gambling market advantage since July, when the former president was still riding high on the wave of Biden’s poor debate and uncertain candidacy.
The current RCP Betting Odds Average gives Trump a 57.6% chance of winning the election.
On the issues motivating voters, Trump currently leads the most important category: the economy.
According to Gallup Research polling conducted in late September, more than half of American voters find the economy to be the most “extremely important” issue.
The Gallup poll also showed that Trump is viewed as “better able to handle the economy” than Harris by a 54-45% margin.
Other top issues include “Democracy in the US,” where Harris has the advantage and is the issue that matters most to Democrat voters, and “Foreign Policy,” where Trump is viewed as more capable by a 5% margin.
